Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 40.418975 47.661291 55.564802 64.796671 75.249015 86.680510 100.091881
2025-01-19 27.448137 36.527749 47.402370 61.242295 78.230861 98.241164 123.415891
2025-01-26 22.307077 32.517513 45.615689 63.338191 86.343581 114.825771 152.336636
2025-02-02 19.581925 30.770772 45.945952 67.497615 96.708828 134.264870 185.437606
2025-02-09 16.857727 28.418050 44.923368 69.411906 103.898730 149.718953 214.002913
2025-02-16 14.528298 26.176609 43.625174 70.571700 109.851027 163.583279 240.922331
2025-02-23 12.359052 23.782072 41.713065 70.487804 113.816867 174.718023 264.462772
2025-03-02 10.303052 21.202776 39.138186 69.033459 115.496882 182.528661 283.544203
2025-03-09 8.827910 19.356071 37.457778 68.697280 118.656117 192.425853 305.815079
2025-03-16 7.019347 16.569610 33.838877 64.833124 115.997786 193.501818 315.220570
2025-03-23 6.354582 15.856031 33.691338 66.630034 122.260891 208.076652 344.911064
2025-03-30 5.422168 14.427890 32.071484 65.724133 124.026383 215.786914 364.555728
2025-04-06 5.062733 14.259346 32.962334 69.639178 134.571284 238.509859 409.385104
2025-04-13 3.920218 12.101097 29.753991 65.902599 132.067237 240.742157 423.200078
2025-04-20 3.519179 11.599277 29.776811 68.129757 139.940941 259.956507 464.307486
2025-04-27 3.343317 11.626708 30.899421 72.543834 151.926812 286.412722 517.921433
2025-05-04 3.003685 11.137199 30.828047 74.574301 159.705428 306.193700 561.527190
2025-05-11 2.653423 10.527126 30.393113 75.804190 166.049144 323.792847 602.198979
2025-05-18 2.273445 9.721643 29.380327 75.715231 169.873694 337.204417 636.421307
2025-05-25 1.876703 8.736346 27.772973 74.172936 170.769329 345.509463 662.367877
2025-06-01 1.595609 8.040515 26.767676 73.816378 173.896458 357.805063 695.404646
2025-06-08 1.216807 6.841036 24.231806 69.716629 169.244245 355.911763 704.047549
2025-06-15 1.102202 6.615566 24.295886 71.623408 176.865938 376.545572 752.280959